Case studies: what actually happened
Classic market events broken down — the decisions, the mechanisms, and what transfers. Mostly stories about how people lost money.
The LUNA / UST Collapse: A Death Spiral by Design
In May 2022, LUNA fell from a peak near $40 billion in market value to essentially zero in seven days. This was not a price decline — it was a mechanism destroying itself. A breakdown of circular collateral and where 20% yield came from.
Read the breakdown →The 2022 UK Pension Crisis: The Most Conservative Money, the Most Aggressive Structure
In September 2022 the UK pension system nearly collapsed in a margin spiral and the Bank of England was forced into emergency gilt purchases. A breakdown of LDI, leverage on low-volatility assets, and its striking resemblance to the LUNA collapse.
Read the breakdown →GameStop 2021: One Move, Two Endings
GME rose roughly 20× in two weeks in January 2021. Institutional shorts took heavy losses, some retail traders made fortunes, and others bought the top and lost everything. A breakdown of short squeezes, when the fuel runs out, and whether you can even trade.
Read the breakdown →The 2011 Gold Top: Right Logic, Losing Trade
Gold peaked at $1,889 in August 2011 and fell 44% to $1,054 over four years. At the time, almost nobody disputed that money printing must produce runaway inflation — a breakdown of how consensus gets priced in.
Read the breakdown →2008: How AAA Became Junk
Between 2007 and 2009 the NASDAQ fell 55.6%. A breakdown of the securitisation chain, why the ratings failed, and how "diversification" evaporates in front of a single shared factor.
Read the breakdown →Michael Burry vs Subprime: Too Early Is Indistinguishable From Wrong
He identified the subprime crisis in 2005, then lost money for three years, faced redemption demands and threats of lawsuits. A breakdown of how a hugely profitable trade nearly destroyed its author before it paid.
Read the breakdown →Long-Term Capital Management: Two Nobel Laureates, $4.6 Billion, Four Months
In 1998 a hedge fund staffed with Nobel laureates and star traders lost 92% of its capital in four months. A breakdown of the strategy, the leverage, and the one thing the models could not price.
Read the breakdown →Black Wednesday 1992: Soros Did Not Win on Direction. He Won on Odds.
On 16 September 1992 Britain was forced out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and the Quantum Fund made roughly $1 billion. The real lesson is not the forecast — it is an asymmetric structure with capped downside.
Read the breakdown →Japan 1990: A High That Took 34 Years to Reclaim
The Nikkei 225 peaked at 38,915 on 29 December 1989 and did not return there until February 2024. A breakdown of bubble valuations, the limits of "just hold long enough," and survivorship bias.
Read the breakdown →Black Monday 1987: A Crash With No News
On 19 October 1987 the Dow fell 22.6% in a single day — still the record. No war, no default, no headline explains it. A breakdown of portfolio insurance, feedback loops, and the day the market makers stopped answering.
Read the breakdown →Historical review for risk education. Not investment advice; no inference about current markets.